VARs, Cointegration and Common Cycle Restrictions
نویسندگان
چکیده
This paper argues that VAR models with cointegration and common cycles can be usefully viewed as observable factor models. The factors are linear combinations of lagged levels and lagged differences, and as such, these observable factors have potential for forecasting. We illustrate this forecast potential in both a Monte Carlo and empirical setting, and demonstrate the difficulties in developing forecasting “rules of thumb” for forecasting in multivariate systems.
منابع مشابه
Monetary Policy Analysis in a Small Open Economy using Bayesian Cointegrated Structural VARs
Structural VARs have been extensively used in empirical macroeconomics during the last two decades, particularly in analyses of monetary policy. Existing Bayesian procedures for structural VARs are at best confined to a severly limited handling of cointegration restrictions. This paper extends the Bayesian analysis of structural VARs to cover cointegrated processes with an arbitrary number of c...
متن کاملImplications of Cointegration for Forecasting: A Review and an Empirical Analysis
Cointegration has different theoretical implications for forecasting. Several empirical studies have compared the out of sample forecasting performance of cointegrted VECMs against unrestricted VARs in levels and in differences. The results of these studies have been generally mixed and inconclusive. This paper provides a comprehensive review over the subject, and also examines the effects...
متن کاملProductivity Shocks and Consumption Smoothing in the International Economy
We develop a two-country, dynamic general equilibrium model that links cross-country differences in net foreign asset and consumption dynamics to differences in discount factors and steady-state levels of productivity. We compare the results of the model to those of VARs for the G3 economies. We identify country-specific productivity shocks by assuming that productivity does not respond contemp...
متن کاملNCER Working Paper Series Some Issues in Using Sign Restrictions for Identifying Structural VARs
The paper looks at estimation of structural VARs with sign restrictions. Since sign restrictions do not generate a unique model it is necessary to find some way of summarizing the information they yield. Existing methods present impulse responses from different models and it is argued that they should come from a common model. If this is not done the implied shocks implicit in the impulse respo...
متن کاملBusiness cycle analysis without much theory A look at structural VARs
This paper examines the usefulness of applying structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) to the study of business cycles. The SVAR approach aims to provide robust inferences, by imposing only weak theoretical restrictions. We illustrate that the robustness of conclusions drawn from SVAR exercises are questionable. We also examine the problem of identification failure in structural VAR models. ©...
متن کامل